Expert Football Model: Analytics-Based Score Prediction and Winner Pick for Oklahoma vs. Navy in the Armed Forces Bowl
2024 Oklahoma vs. Navy Score Prediction / Tommy Gilligan - Imagn ImagesOklahoma and Navy face off in the postseason for the 2024 Armed Forces Bowl. Here’s a look at the latest prediction for the matchup, courtesy of an expert football model that forecasts scores and picks winners.
Oklahoma endured a challenging season, finishing with a 6-6 record. However, the Sooners delivered a season-defining upset over Alabama, a result that ultimately kept the Crimson Tide out of the College Football Playoff.
Navy started strong with a perfect 6-0 record but faltered late, dropping three of their last four games. The Midshipmen rebounded impressively with an underdog victory against their archrival Army, ending their regular season on a high note.
As Oklahoma and Navy prepare to clash this week, what do the analytics predict? Let’s consult the SP+ model for a breakdown of how these teams stack up in the Armed Forces Bowl.
Oklahoma vs. Navy Score Prediction
The SP+ model leans toward the Power Four representative, Oklahoma, over the Group of Five contender, Navy, but by a relatively narrow margin.
The projection forecasts a 29-21 victory for Oklahoma, with an expected margin of 7.7 points. According to the model, the Sooners have a 68% chance of securing an outright win against the Midshipmen.
SP+ is described as a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency,” focusing on the most sustainable and predictable aspects of the game to forecast outcomes.
How reliable has it been this season? The SP+ model boasts a 52.1% win rate against the spread, going 384-352-9 thus far.
Oklahoma vs. Navy Odds and Betting Tips
Oklahoma enters the matchup as a 2.5-point favorite over Navy, per the latest lines from FanDuel Sportsbook.
- Total Points: 43.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
- Moneyline Odds: Oklahoma -152, Navy +126
Suggested Bets Based on the Prediction:
- Take Oklahoma -2.5
- Bet on the Sooners to win outright at -152
- Go with the Over 43.5 points
Betting Trends:
Bettors are evenly split on how this game will play out:
- 50% of bets favor Navy to either pull off the upset or keep the final margin within three points.
- The other 50% predict Oklahoma will cover the slim point spread in a victory.
This balanced consensus highlights the uncertainty and competitiveness expected in this matchup.
Computer Prediction
Most analytical football models also favor Oklahoma over Navy in this matchup.
One such model is the College Football Power Index, which uses data from both teams to simulate the game 20,000 times and predict outcomes. According to the latest simulations, Oklahoma comes out on top in 75.7% of the computer’s projections.
This leaves Navy with a 24.3% chance of winning in the remaining simulations.
What does this mean for the expected margin of victory? The model predicts that Oklahoma is likely to win by 9.3 points, given both teams' current rosters and conditions.
How to Watch Oklahoma vs. Navy
- Date: Friday, Dec. 27
- Location: Fort Worth, TX
- Time: 12:00 p.m. Eastern
- TV: ESPN Network
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